{
  "plan": {
    "method": "linear-trend",
    "outcome_column": "data_value",
    "time_columns": [
      "year",
      "month"
    ],
    "filters": [
      {
        "column": "indicator",
        "value": "Opioids (T40.0-T40.4,T40.6)",
        "reason": "Restrict to the overall opioid overdose death category rather than pooling with cocaine, methadone, or other drug-specific indicators"
      }
    ],
    "group_columns": [],
    "series_kind": "rolling",
    "breakpoint": null,
    "minimum_points": 8,
    "exclude_incomplete": true,
    "rationale": "The question asks whether a rolling 12-month opioid overdose death measure has trended downward since 2020. A single linear trend fit on the year/month-ordered rolling series for the overall opioid indicator provides a straightforward test of directional change over this period without assuming any policy-driven slope shift.",
    "limitations": [
      "This dataset (CDC VSRR provisional counts) contains no county column, so a county-by-county breakdown as asked in the question cannot be produced from this data \\u2014 only a single statewide Ohio series is available",
      "data_value here is a raw death count, not an age-adjusted rate; no population denominator is present, so age-adjustment and true rate comparisons over time are not possible with this data",
      "Rows are 12-month-ending rolling windows, so consecutive monthly points are highly autocorrelated and represent overlapping periods, not independent annual observations; a fitted slope describes a smoothed multi-year trend, not year-to-year change",
      "Recent periods are provisional (98-100% complete) and will be revised upward, which can distort the estimated trend at the most recent end of the series",
      "This is an ecological, aggregate time-series design; it cannot establish causal drivers (e.g., policy effects or fentanyl-specific mechanisms) behind any observed trend",
      "Percent-complete varies by row but no explicit incomplete/partial flag column exists to exclude on beyond this percentage field"
    ]
  },
  "n_rows_input": 1608,
  "n_rows_analysed": 120,
  "n_suppressed_dropped": 3,
  "series": [
    {
      "group": "",
      "n": 120,
      "first_period": "2015-April",
      "last_period": "2026-February",
      "first_value": 2335.0,
      "last_value": 1522.0,
      "min": 1522.0,
      "max": 4702.0,
      "mean": 3438.0583333333334,
      "median": 3459.5,
      "absolute_change": -813.0,
      "percent_change": -34.81798715203426
    }
  ],
  "findings": [
    {
      "group": "",
      "method": "linear-trend",
      "slope_per_period": -5.0514375998333305,
      "slope_ci_low": -9.553735017043042,
      "slope_ci_high": -0.549140182623618,
      "p_value": 0.028203711147635,
      "r_squared": 0.040154192057960225,
      "n": 120,
      "direction": "decreasing",
      "interpretation": "Slope is the average change in the outcome per period step in the ordered series; it is an association over time, not a causal effect."
    }
  ],
  "warnings": [
    "Restricted to indicator='Opioids (T40.0-T40.4,T40.6)' (Restrict to the overall opioid overdose death category rather than pooling with cocaine, methadone, or other drug-specific indicators); 134 of 1608 rows.",
    "3 row(s) had no usable value (suppressed or missing) and were excluded from the analysis. They were not imputed or treated as zero.",
    "11 row(s) with reporting under 100% complete were excluded.",
    "Series is rolling: each value is a trailing-window total. Values are analysed as levels over time and are never summed."
  ]
}